Five things I’m thinking about this weekend’s wild card games…
– The fact that the Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996 might not mean a lot to many of the players who haven’t been around nearly that long, but it’s gnawing a hole through owner Jerry Jones’ duodenum. Just this week, Jones said the following:
“I wouldn’t have dreamed that in ‘96 we wouldn’t have (won) a playoff, and I wouldn’t have dreamed that we would have had the turnover in the coaches that we’ve had. I wouldn’t have dreamed we would have had some of the challenges that, whether it was self-imposed or not through me, that we’ve had in our quarterbacking. So all of those things as I look back over these years I couldn’t have imagined that.”
Yep, Ulcer City.
–Home teams are only 10-10 in the wild card round since 2004, and all four home teams are betting favorites this weekend, even though it wouldn’t be a stretch at all to see the Bengals and Cardinals lose to the visiting Jets and Packers.
– Recent history suggests we will be watching a Super Bowl participant this weekend. Since 2005, at least one wild card team has reached the Super Bowl every year.
– The Patriots are 5-0 all-time against the Ravens, yet Randy Moss has only 11 receptions for 125 yards in his past four games against Baltimore and Tom Brady has posted a pedestrian passer rating (81.5) and completion percentage (54.0)in three games against the Ravens. Weird.
– It’s because of quotes like this that I continue to like Marvin Lewis, who was talking about Chad Ochocinco’s pre-game mishap last week against the Jets, which preceded a no-catch performance:
“Ochocinco had his ego bruised when he fell down before the game. I think he’s healthy, as he’s Twittered all over America.”
On to this week’s rankings…
1. Colts (14-2, LW: 1): The Colts might not have much momentum heading into the postseason, but they are healthy and they will be playing at home. That’s two reasons to like them to bounce back nicely in the divisional round.
2. Saints (13-3, LW: 2): Like the Colts, the Saints grabbed homefield advantage in the NFC with a bit of a whimper. There is no offense, though, that scares opponents like this one. If the Saints get any help from an improved defense they will be a tough out.
3. Chargers (13-3, LW: 3): Despite the 11 straight wins, one stat that jumps out is the San Diego’s 320 points allowed, most among AFC teams and fourth-highest among all playoff teams. The Chargers will have to play better defense to knock off the Colts and get to Miami.
4. Vikings (12-4, LW: 6): Starting with Brett Favre’s surprise training camp arrival and continuing through the late season dust-up with Brad Childress, has there been a Super Bowl contender with a weirder, more potentially disruptive storyline involving its franchise player?
5. Cowboys (11-5, LW: 7): The fact that Tony Romo isn’t heaving interceptions on every 10th pass attempt has overshadowed the fact that Dallas’ defense is what carried the Cowboys to the NFC East title and helped them overcome their annual December swoon. The defense is the reason they have a good shot in a conference that includes high-powered offenses in Philly, New Orleans and Minnesota.
6. Packers (11-5, LW: 9): They key to the Packers’ success has been taking care of Aaron Rodgers — who has been sacked only nine times in his past seven games — and Rodgers’ taking care of the ball — he has thrown only two interceptions in his past eight games. If those trends continue Green Bay should be tough to beat.
7. Bengals (10-6, LW: 10): Because Marvin Lewis dumbed down the offensive and defensive game plans in last week’s blowout loss to the Jets and because it’s impossible to say how much the Bengals have left at this point after dealing with a pair of tragedies this season, Cincy might be the toughest read of all the playoff teams.
8. Eagles (11-5, LW: 4): The Eagles managed only one touchdown and 16 points in their two regular-season meetings with the Cowboys. That could mean that Donovan McNabb and Co., with the league’s fifth-rated offense, are due to drop a 35-point bomb on the ‘Boys in their new stadium’s playoff debut. Or it could mean Dallas’ defense flat-out owns the Eagles this season.
9. Patriots (10-6, LW: 5): Think Bill Belichick is regretting his decision not to rest New England’s starters last week after Wes Welker went down with a season-ending knee injury? Now we’ll find out if the Pats, whose running game has been spotty, can thrive with a Tom Brady-to-Randy Moss connection and a little bit of Julian Edelman thrown in to keep defenses honest.
10. Jets (9-7, LW: NR): Rex Ryan says the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl, and you’ve got to love the cockiness that Buddy Ryan’s boys toss around. Then again, if the Jets, already with the league’s top defense, can duplicate last week’s horse-whipping of the Bengals, who knows?
Next five: Cardinals (10-6, LW: 8); Ravens (9-7, LW: NR); Texans (9-7, LW: NR); Falcons (9-7, LW: NR); Steelers (9-7, LW: NR)