Championship games: 2-0

Season: 179-87

Saints (15-3) vs. Colts (16-2): Everyone seems to be expecting a shootout, but don’t be surprised if the two teams play a contrarian first half, with the Colts leading something like 13-10 and the defenses playing far over their heads. This could change with a couple of turnovers either way, but I see a lot of feeling out early on. The difference in the game will be Peyton Manning’s ability to assess what the Saints are doing defensively in the first half, pick it apart at halftime and exploit New Orleans’ coverage packages in the second half. Pay particular attention to the Colts’ first offensive series in the third quarter, and look for Manning to audible into a big play based a look the Saints showed earlier in the game. The Cots, with Manning and experience on their side, should start to pull away in the third quarter and turn it into a comfortable win – their second Super Bowl title in four years – by the time it’s over. Colts, 34-20

Last week: 0-4

Season: 174-86

After going 0-4 last week I developed a new theory: The two toughest weeks to pick NFL games are the final week of the regular season and wild card weekend.

Week 17 was a nightmare this season because you had teams (the Colts, the Patriots, the Saints, the Bengals) with little or nothing to play for that got rolled, you had other teams (the Chargers, the Packers) with nothing to play for that played their starters and looked surprisingly good, and you had teams (the Broncos, the Giants, the Jaguars) that actually were respectable for most of the season and looked horrible.

And then there is wild card weekend, which has become as weird as some Tarentino movies. Home field advantage barely exists, given that hosts are 12-12 in the wild card round over the past six years. Teams like the Patriots and Eagles, with strong playoff credentials, experienced quarterbacks and highly respected coaches, come out and play like they’ve never been involved in a postseason game. And we wind up with something like the Cardinals’ 51-45 overtime win over the Packers that was either one of the greatest games in playoff history or the latest indication that NFL players cannot tackle anymore.

The end result was an 0-4 weekend that sends me into the divisional round feeling about as confident as three-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady looked in Sunday’s meltdown against the Ravens.

It can’t be as bad as last week…right?

Saturday’s games

Cardinals (11-6) at Saints (13-3): If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers managed to score 45 points against Arizona, Drew Brees and the Saints could be looking at 100. Saints, 42-24

Ravens (10-7) at Colts (14-2): Indy’s defense is better than a lot people think it is. Colts, 27-17

Sunday’s games

Cowboys (12-5) at Vikings (12-4): Enough already about overrated Tony Romo and the overrated Cowboys. Vikings, 31-10

Jets (10-7) at Chargers (13-3): JV Jets step up and play a big boy game, and it doesn’t go well. Chargers, 33-14

Four things I’m thinking about this weekend’s divisional games:

– The Cowboys aren’t as good as the Eagles made them look the past two weeks. We’re still talking about a Dallas team that was 3-2 at one point after needing overtime to beat the Chiefs. Yes, Tony Romo has been playing well. But does anybody really believe Romo is beyond a playoff-killing 13-for-36 game with three interceptions? Didn’t think so.

– Once upon a time the Patriots’ swagger and Super Bowl resume was worth one, maybe two touchdowns once the playoffs began. Not anymore. Tom Brady just isn’t the same quarterback that he was before knee surgery. He might return to that level, but it’s unlikely Randy Moss will still be around when that happens. The Patriots made the Ravens look a lot better than they are in the wild card round, and Baltimore should get its comeuppance this weekend against the Colts.

– Both NFC quarterback matchups are over-the-top ratings boosters. Both Saints-Cardinals and Vikings-Cowboys features a wily, Super Bowl-winning veteran against a young upstart who, at some point in his career, has had to fend off questions about whether he could win the big game. Romo got himself off the playoff chokers’ list — for now — last week. Drew Brees needs a win against the defending NFC champs to prove he is for real in the postseason.

– Is anybody really giving the Jets a chance against the Chargers in San Diego? If the Chargers don’t load the box to stop the run and dare Mark Sanchez to beat them they deserve to lose. The only way the Jets win this is if they can run the ball and force at least two turnovers. Not likely.

And now the rankings…

1. Colts (14-2, LW: 1st): Off last week.

2. Saints (13-3, LW: 2nd): Off last week.

3. Chargers (13-3, LW: 3rd): Off last week.

4. Vikings (13-3, LW: 4th): Off last week.

5. Cowboys (12-5, LW: 5th): The Cowboys finally emerged from their 13-year playoff drought and suddenly have become darlings in the NFC, thanks in large part to a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in its last four games.

6. Cardinals (11-6, LW: NR): Arizona’s defense is horrible, but the way Kurt Warner is playing the Cardinals have a chance this weekend against the Saints even if Anquan Boldin doesn’t play.

7. Jets (10-7, LW: 10th): It’s becoming tougher every week to not get swept up in the Jets’ run, although there appears to be little chance they will pull off another upset with a rookie quarterback on the road against San Diego.

8. Ravens (10-7, LW: NR): The same formula that carried the Ravens to their last Super Bowl title is there again  — strong defense, great running game, quarterback along for the ride.

9. Packers (11-6, LW: 6th): In reality, the Packers’ offense makes them the third or fourth most dangerous team in the league, but as we saw last week, defense is the reason they will watch from home this weekend.

10. Eagles (11-6, LW: 8th): Plenty of people would have liked to see the breakup of the Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb duo after so many playoff disappointments in Philly, but it doesn’t appear it’s going to happen.

Next five: Bengals (10-7, LW: 7th); Patriots (10-7, LW: 9th); Texans (9-7, LW: NR); Falcons (9-7, LW: NR); Steelers (9-7, LW: NR)

The Bills voted running back Fred Jackson team MVP, a fitting reward for one of the league’s great can-do stories. Jackson played at Division III Coe College and worked his way through the Indoor Football League and onto the Bills practice squad.

Here is a link to an archived version of the column I wrote about Jackson earlier this season, in which I argued that Jackson had earned an expanded role in the offense upon Marshawn Lynch’s return from a league-imposed three-game suspension:

“And at this point, no one is asking the question that Bills coach Dick Jauron certainly won’t answer, which is whether after two weeks of nothing but hard running and first-string production Jackson doesn’t deserve to be something more than a handsomely-paid temp. While Lynch was messing with guns and getting himself in trouble with the law and Roger Goodell, Jackson, the polite third-year back from tiny Coe College, was behaving himself last offseason. And the offseason before that.”

Here is the link to the MVP story on the Bills’ Web site.

Five things I’m thinking about this weekend’s wild card games…

– The fact that the Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996 might not mean a lot to many of the players who haven’t been around nearly that long, but it’s gnawing a hole through owner Jerry Jones’ duodenum. Just this week, Jones said the following:

“I wouldn’t have dreamed that in ‘96 we wouldn’t have (won) a playoff, and I wouldn’t have dreamed that we would have had the turnover in the coaches that we’ve had. I wouldn’t have dreamed we would have had some of the challenges that, whether it was self-imposed or not through me, that we’ve had in our quarterbacking. So all of those things as I look back over these years I couldn’t have imagined that.”

Yep, Ulcer City.

–Home teams are only 10-10 in the wild card round since 2004, and all four home teams are betting favorites this weekend, even though it wouldn’t be a stretch at all to see the Bengals and Cardinals lose to the visiting Jets and Packers.

– Recent history suggests we will be watching a Super Bowl participant this weekend. Since 2005, at least one wild card team has reached the Super Bowl every year.

– The Patriots are 5-0 all-time against the Ravens, yet Randy Moss has only 11 receptions for 125 yards in his past four games against Baltimore and Tom Brady has posted a pedestrian passer rating (81.5) and completion percentage (54.0)in three games against the Ravens. Weird.

– It’s because of quotes like this that I continue to like Marvin Lewis, who was talking about Chad Ochocinco’s pre-game mishap last week against the Jets, which preceded a no-catch performance:

“Ochocinco had his ego bruised when he fell down before the game. I think he’s healthy, as he’s Twittered all over America.”

On to this week’s rankings…

1. Colts (14-2, LW: 1): The Colts might not have much momentum heading into the postseason, but they are healthy and they will be playing at home. That’s two reasons to like them to bounce back nicely in the divisional round.

2. Saints (13-3, LW: 2): Like the Colts, the Saints grabbed homefield advantage in the NFC with a bit of a whimper. There is no offense, though, that scares opponents like this one. If the Saints get any help from an improved defense they will be a tough out.

3. Chargers (13-3, LW: 3): Despite the 11 straight wins, one stat that jumps out is the San Diego’s 320 points allowed, most among AFC teams and fourth-highest among all playoff teams. The Chargers will have to play better defense to knock off the Colts and get to Miami.

4. Vikings (12-4, LW: 6): Starting with Brett Favre’s surprise training camp arrival and continuing through the late season dust-up with Brad Childress, has there been a Super Bowl contender with a weirder, more potentially disruptive storyline involving its franchise player?

5. Cowboys (11-5, LW: 7): The fact that Tony Romo isn’t heaving interceptions on every 10th pass attempt has overshadowed the fact that Dallas’ defense is what carried the Cowboys to the NFC East title and helped them overcome their annual December swoon. The defense is the reason they have a good shot in a conference that includes high-powered offenses in Philly, New Orleans and Minnesota.

6. Packers (11-5, LW: 9): They key to the Packers’ success has been taking care of Aaron Rodgers — who has been sacked only nine times in his past seven games — and Rodgers’ taking care of the ball — he has thrown only two interceptions in his past eight games. If those trends continue Green Bay should be tough to beat.

7. Bengals (10-6, LW: 10): Because Marvin Lewis dumbed down the offensive and defensive game plans in last week’s blowout loss to the Jets and because it’s impossible to say how much the Bengals have left at this point after dealing with a pair of tragedies this season, Cincy might be the toughest read of all the playoff teams.

8. Eagles (11-5, LW: 4): The Eagles managed only one touchdown and 16 points in their two regular-season meetings with the Cowboys. That could mean that Donovan McNabb and Co., with the league’s fifth-rated offense, are due to drop a 35-point bomb on the ‘Boys in their new stadium’s playoff debut. Or it could mean Dallas’ defense flat-out owns the Eagles this season.

9. Patriots (10-6, LW: 5): Think Bill Belichick is regretting his decision not to rest New England’s starters last week after Wes Welker went down with a season-ending knee injury? Now we’ll find out if the Pats, whose running game has been spotty, can thrive with a Tom Brady-to-Randy Moss connection and a little bit of Julian Edelman thrown in to keep defenses honest.

10. Jets (9-7, LW: NR): Rex Ryan says the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl, and you’ve got to love the cockiness that Buddy Ryan’s boys toss around. Then  again, if the Jets, already with the league’s top defense, can duplicate last week’s horse-whipping of the Bengals, who knows?

Next five: Cardinals (10-6, LW: 8); Ravens (9-7, LW: NR); Texans (9-7, LW: NR); Falcons (9-7, LW: NR); Steelers (9-7, LW: NR)

Last week: 13-3

Season: 174-82

Saturday’s games

Jets (9-7) at Bengals (10-6): The Jets have some momentum, but Cincy gets re-focused to win a tough one at home. Bengals, 20-17

Eagles (11-5) at Cowboys (11-5): Tony Romo is due for a bad game, which is probably the only shot the mistake-prone Eagles have. Eagles, 27-20

Sunday’s games

Ravens (9-7) at Patriots (10-6): We know the Ravens want to run the ball, and with Wes Welker out, the Pats will run more, too. Patriots, 17-14

Packers (11-5) at Cardinals (10-6): There won’t be another Super Bowl run for Arizona this year. Packers, 23-14

Tom Brady was announced as NFL comeback player of the year today, and it’s hard to argue with that selection. Less than one year after reconstructive knee surgery, Brady returned the New Patriots to the playoffs and passed for 4,398 yards and 28 touchdowns.

Here are my picks for the rest of the annual awards:

– Defensive Rookie of the Year: LB Brian Cushing, Texans. Cushing gets the nod — barely — over Bills safety Jairus Byrd. Cushing finished the season with 133 tackles, 86 solo, and helped the Texans to the franchise’s first winning season.

– Offensive Rookie of the Year: RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos. Vikings wideout Percy Harvin was electric, but Moreno became the workhorse of Denver’s offense with 946 rushing yards and seven TDs and has the look of a future 1,500-yard back.

– MVP: QB Peyton Manning, Colts. Despite the loss of veteran receiver Marvin Harrison, Manning remained among the league’s elite QBs and threw for 4,500 yards and 33 TDs to a groups of wideouts that included rookie Austin Collie and former Division III star Pierre Garcon. Oh, and the Colts went 14-2.

– Defensive Player of the Year: S Darren Sharper, Saints. The 13-year veteran had 71 tackles and shared the NFL lead with nine interceptions, three of them returned for TDs. New Orleans’ defense was better this season and Sharper was a major reason why.

– Offensive Player of the Year: RB Chris Johnson, Titans. Johnson became the sixth players to rush for 2,000 yards and added 14 rushing TDs and 50 receptions for 503 yards and two more scores. It’s not his fault the Titans missed the playoffs.

– Coach of the Year: Marvin Lewis, Bengals. Lewis guided the Bengals to the AFC North title through a regular season filled with tragedy, including the sudden death of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s wife and the accidental death of receiver Chris Henry.

Five things I think I know heading into Week 17…

–The Patriots and Steelers are two teams that could go into any AFC stadium and win a playoff game, which is why the Steelers are the most dangerous of the 8-7 wild-card bubble contenders.

– Whether or not you believe in karma, not much has gone the Vikings’ way since Red Childress and Brett Favre went public with their play-calling spat.

– The Cowboys have an excellent opportunity to shed the label of December patsies if they can beat the Eagles at home today and win the AFC East title.

– When it comes down to it, the NFL’s suits in New York want no part of legislating to teams when and if they can make the decision to rest players in whom they have invested millions of dollars.

– Here’s a simple message for teams that find their seasons hanging in the balance when those situations arise — take of business earlier in the year and you won’t have to worry about whether the Chargers, Colts or Saints are going with their scrubs in Weeks 16 and 17.

And on to the rankings…

1. Colts (14-1, Last week: 1): Jim Caldwell’s decision to bench Peyton Manning and other starters during last week’s loss to the Jets has been discussed ad naseum and dissected to death. The bottom line is the Colts are trying to win another Super Bowl, not one-up the 1972 Dolphins.

2. Saints (13-2, LW: 2): The Saints apparently won’t go into the playoffs with much momentum. But they are relatively healthy and they will be at home. That might be a fair trade-off.

3. Chargers (12-3, LW: 3): Ten straight wins and plenty of offensive weapons make the Chargers the team best suited to challenge the Colts in the AFC.

4. Eagles (11-4, LW: 5): The loss of center Jamal Jackson is a concern. But the Eagles still have enough firepower to beat the Cowboys this week and possibly grab the NFC’s No. 2 seed, which would give them a second-round home game.

5. Patriots (10-5, LW: 6): Remember that aura of invincibility that used to follow the Patriots into every stadium they visited? That’s long gone, but New England is playing some of its best football of the season in December and Randy Moss appears to be happy enough for now.

6. Vikings (11-4, LW: 4): Last week’s loss to the Bears pushed the meltdown threat level past orange to red.

7. Cowboys (10-5, LW: 8): They are playing well in December, they have a shot at the NFC East title, and no one can remember the last big locker room crisis. Are these really the Cowboys we’ve come to love and mock?

8. Cardinals (10-5, LW: 7): Surprising stat: The Cardinals have allowed the fewest points among NFC division leaders entering Week 17.

9. Packers (10-5, LW: 10): If you’re noticing a decided NFC slant to this week’s Top 10, that’s because the AFC has so many very average-looking eight-win teams. The Packers appear to be playing better than any of them right now, despite their last-minute loss in Pittsburgh two weeks ago.

10. Bengals (10-5, LW: 9): Cincy has been a pretty ordinary team during the second half of the season. I’m not saying they can’t rally and make a playoff run, but they appear to have slipped below the level of the AFC’s top contenders at this point.

Next five: Steelers (8-7, LW: NR); Texans (8-7, LW: NR); Jets (8-7, LW: NR); Falcons (8-7, LW: NR); Ravens (8-7, LW: NR).

Last week: 10-6

Season: 161-79

Sunday’s games

Colts (14-1) at Bills (5-10): Indy is in regular-season shutdown mode. But the Bills still might not have enough to win. Colts, 23-17

Jaguars (7-8) at Browns (4-11): At the cost of draft spots, the Browns finish the season on a modest little roll. Browns, 21-14

Bears (6-9) at Lions (2-13): Lions’ two-year mark: 2-30. Bears, 30-10

49ers (7-8) at Rams (1-14): The Niners take the next small step under Mike Singletary by finishing .500. 49ers, 17-7

Steelers (8-7) at Dolphins (7-8): Steelers get their win and wait for help. Steelers, 24-21

Giants (8-7) at Vikings (11-4): Both of these teams pretty much took the second half of the season off. Vikings, 27-20

Falcons (8-7) at Bucs (3-12): Atlanta got it rolling again a little too late to save its season. Falcons, 35-14

Saints (13-2) at Panthers (7-8): Thanks to the Vikings’ slide the Saints have nothing at stake. And they’re playing that way. Panthers, 28-21

Patriots (10-5) at Texans (8-7): The Texans need to win. The Patriots don’t. Texans, 24-21

Eagles (11-4) at Cowboys (10-5): Think the Cowboys remember their 44-6 loss at Philly in last season’s finale? Cowboys, 35-28

Chiefs (3-12) at Broncos (8-7): Denver earns a spot in the mind-boggling AFC wild card tiebreaker. Broncos, 31-17

Ravens (8-7) at Raiders (5-10): Playoff-hungry Ravens put an end to another weird Raiders season. Ravens, 21-13

Packers (10-5) at Cardinals (10-5): Both teams are in the playoffs, so this is all about momentum. Cardinals, 31-24

Redskins (4-11) at Chargers (12-3): Like a lot of this week’s games, it depends on if, or how long, the Chargers play their starters. Chargers, 20-13

Titans (7-8) at Seahawks (5-10): Eight wins would be a pretty heady accomplishment for the Titans after their 0-6 start. Titans, 23-20

Bengals (10-5) at Jets (8-7): After declaring the Jets out of the playoffs a few weeks ago, Rex Ryan happily eats his words. Jets, 24-17