Here are District 10 soccer playoffs projections with three weeks left. All projections are based on opinion and are based on if the playoffs started today. Nothing is fact until the D-10 Committee releases the brackets. The projections do not take into account any possibly play-in matches assigned by D-10. Fans are encouraged to post comments or their own projections.
Boys
Class A
Semifinals
(1) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (4) Kennedy Catholic
(2) Mercer vs. (3) Fairview
Class AA
Quarterfinals (D-10 has already assigned the Region 4 and 5 champions the bye)
(3) Wilmington vs. (6) Saegertown
(4) General McLane vs. (5) Slippery Rock
Byes: (1) Harbor Creek, (2) Warren
Class AAA
Championship
(1) McDowell vs. (2) Cathedral Prep
Girls
Class A
Semifinals
(1) Fairview vs. (4) Wilmington
(2) Mercer vs. (3) Seneca
Class AA
Quarterfinals (D-10 has already assigned the Region 4 and 5 champions the bye)
(3) Hickory vs. (6) General McLane
(4) Harbor Creek vs. (5) Slippery Rock
Byes: (1) Mercyhurst Prep, (2) Fort LeBoeuf
Class AAA
Championship
(1) McDowell vs. (2) Strong Vincent
–Tom Reisenweber
don’t overlook Conneaut as possible play-in
or regular spot in AA. they have beaten
Saegertown and could possibly have 12-13
wins at season’s end
AA soccer rankings a little skewed???
SR isn’t even .500 and Conneaut 3 games over
.500…Conneaut plays just as tough a
schedule..
AW,
Conneaut has to really turn it on in the second half. Third place in a Class A-heavy region will not get Conneaut in over the second-place team in a Class AA region.
Slippery Rock just beat Wilmington, who will probably win Region 2. The Rockets also have a much-tougher schedule. Conneaut has 10 region games with Class A teams compared with SR playing 10 league games against Class AA opponents. Conneaut did beat Saegertown 1-0 but second time around lost 6-0.
If Conneaut wins out and is 13-4-1 with wins over Hickory and Meadville, they would certainly have a case but they cannot afford to lose to any more Class A opponents.
Thanks,
Tom
i agree with you on a couple points, but not
the classification merit. classification
means nothing in soccer…Maercer and Kennedy
and Fairview and Mercy P could beat anyone
out there on any given day, and the opposite
is also true… I don’t think Conneaut should
be judged because they are in a tough “A”
class when compared to “AA” teams..they should have been in Region 2 as in the past,
Dist 10 placed them in “A”. A win is a win,
and Conneaut’s win over Saegertown, and they
have already beaten Meadville once, and lost
to poweerhouse Mercer 2-0, is just as
meaningful as SR beating Wilmington…it is
all meaningless at this point with 2 weeks
to go, i agree, but I don’t buy into this
concept that just because Conneaut was placed
in “A” thru no choice of their own, should be
discredited because of that placement. If
they win 12-13 games, and some against “AA”
teams and “AAA” team, they should be
considered for at least a play-in…
Tom,
Would you know why they are only taking 6 girls AA teams this year and it was 8 last year?
AW,
I would have to disagree on a few things. I think comparing classifications for random non-region games is one thing but when Conneaut plays most of its schedule against Class A teams and are in third place, that can be damaging to a playoff resume. I would not equate SR beating Wilmington to mean as much as Conneaut beating Mercer. We’ve seen Mercer get routed by Fairview, which lost to MP.
I think Conneaut is in a hole in many sports because of the late declaration to consolidate. The football team has to win out and the boys soccer team might have to as well.
Thanks,
Tom
FLB,
D-10 always starts with six in Class AA. I think they do this in case there is more teams they can always add on. If you declare eight and there are only six worthy teams, you are in trouble.
Thanks,
Tom
how about iroquois makeig it they did bast ne if they bast sa they sould be in
and if hc basts flb they sould git that bye right
We’ll see what happens over the next few weeks. These projections are based on the standings right now.
Thanks,
Tom
Thanks Tom, was thinking the same thing but wanted to get your opinion.
As far as Conneaut, don’t they get in automatically as long as they have a winning record? Was looking at the D10 tourney site and I think that was one a criteria for a AA team playing in a region with all teams of a lower class.
It is way to early to “predict” what district 10 will do as it relates to playoffs for soccer. Heck the day before playoffs are scheduled to begin may be to early to predict what District 10 soccer comm. may decide. This is evidenced in the fact that the Soccer comm. did not even publish what the playoff structure was until two weeks after the season started. To make matters even more interesting District 10 made no apparent changes to the playoff structure leaving one to wonder why they were so late in publishing the playoff document. As in the past the only “for sure” is if you win your region after that who knows what will occur. Unfortuantaly soccer is not a revenue generator (like football of basketball) so the chance for an expanded playoff bracket seems unlikely. District 10 in general (or shall I say my opnion) provides more opportunity for football teams than they do soccer teams. This can clearly be seen if you compare number of teams included in the playoff set up … In class A football 8 of 14 teams are scheduled to participate in the playoffs (or 57% of the teams in class A football) In class A soccer 4 of the 11 teams are scheduled to participate in the playoofs ( or 36% of the teams in class A soccer) In Class AA football 8 of the 16 teams are scheduled to participate ( or 50% of the teams) In Class AA soccer 6 of the 19 teams are schedules to participate ( or 31 % of the teams) Is it just me or does the playoof structure appear to benifit the “revenue” generators for District X???
FLB Fan,
No team has an automatic playoff spot unless they win a region or they are the highest ranking team in their classification in a mixed region, given there are two teams in that classification. Conneaut is the only Class AA team and therefore does not get an automatic spot.
Thanks,
Tom
Blogmansouth,
Two years ago, you might have been right. But it’s interesting you make this point now. Last year, Class AA football was reduced to six teams even though Harbor Creek clearly deserved to get in but because there was not another competitive team in the south, D-10 reduced the field.
You may see that again this year in Class AAA. Right now there are five teams that could get in but D-10 might reduce the field to four.
At the same time, last year D-10 expanded Class AA girls soccer to eight teams instead of the approved six. Also, I think it was two years ago they added play-in matches.
For the most part, if D-10 thinks expansion is worth it, they will do it.
Thanks,
Tom
Tom if you look at the District X website they show a disproportianate number of football teams eligible to make the playoffs than soccer teams …I understand what District X has done but that does not explain why the intial playoff structure has a higher percentage of football teams eligible to make the playoffs than soccer teams … Until District X reponds with an acceptable reason for this I continue to say that District X has more football teams participate in playoffs based on the simple fact of money generated. There is no other reason I can see that the percentages of teams is larger for the football playoffs than it is for soccer playoffs. Also, based on your comment it would appear that the District X comm. should have changed the playoff structure years ago. Instead they continue to publish the same playoff format year after year for both football and soccer as well as other sports and than make decisions at the end of sports seasons as to how the playoffs will ultimately be shaped. Again my point is this, when the season began a disproportianate number of football teams had playoff opportunities than did soccer teams (please refer back to the percentages of teams right now eligiable for playoffs in both sports.) My simple question is this why are there 50 percent (or higher) of football teams scheduled to be in the playoffs but only in the 30 percent range for soccer???
If you want to get technical about it, 67% of girls Class AAA get in and 50% of boys Class AAA.
I think part of it is in football you don’t want bye weeks if you can help it. No team wants to practice in the cold for two weeks without a game.
I don’t know the exact reasons why D-10 does what it does but I wouldn’t say there’s a bias toward any sport. Obviously, football makes the most money but the financial reports published in the winter showed soccer and volleyball both made money as well.
Thanks,
Tom
By the way, basketball is the second-largest moneymaker in D-10.
Boys Class AA – 8 of 18 gets in (44%) Class AAA – 8 of 17 (47%)
If D-10 was concerned about only money, those numbers would go up.
the fact that 67% of the girls is class AAA get in supports the arguement that there is no consistiency in District X playoff decision making… and the 50% you are using for Class AAA boys is because there are only (i believe)4 teams.. tough to have a playoff game with only one team … Tom I would urge you to look at the structure District X uses with an open mind and than honestly determine if you feel fairnees and equality are given across the board as it relates to playoff structure… One other point to look at…on the D-X web site their is a link for MAX PREPS that includes only football and basketball hummmmmm…. interesting that they don’t think enough of the other sports to even include a link to where you can find the schedule of games being played
Tom the numbers for basketball again support the fact that a higher percentage of teams are eligible for playoffs than in soccer. My question remains why is this? and How is it fair to soccer? Also there are I belive only three girls soccer programs in the AAA claification… Agin it would be hard to have a playoff with just one team so out of necessity two teams are taken in both boys and girls AAA soccer
By the way I never said D-X was ONLY interested in money …those are your words … I said the playoff structure appears to benifit the revenue makes in D-X… and given the fact that football and basketball (the two biggest revenue makers in D-10) have a higher % of teams taking part in playoff games I stand by my statement that it APPEARS playoff opportunities are more readly avaliable for teams that participate in revenue generating sports.
One more stat to look at…taking the minimum number of teams according to the tournament info page on the D-10 web site football overall has 24 playoff spots for 44 teams in D-10 54% of the football teams make it to the post season…. In Boys Basketball there are 24 playoff spots avaliable which means 48% of the teams in D-10 make it to the post season… in Girls basketball there are 24 playoff positions avaliable which means 53% of the teams in D-10 see post season play…. In Boys soccer there are 12 playoff spots avaliable which translates to 35% of the teams in D-10 and in girls soccer there are 12 playoff opportunities which means 38% of the teams in the district can earn a playoff birth … clearly one can see that the “revenue makers” are given more opportunity for post season play…
I think they only did that because the PIAA brokered a deal with Maxpreps. The real source for scores and standings is our blog lol.
If we want to throw numbers around, 67% of the lacrosse teams make the playoffs in boys and girls. I believe boys volleyball is 100%. Track and field is 100%. Cross country is 100%. Swimming is 100%.
My point is that it varies by sport. I think it is pretty clear going into the soccer playoffs which teams will contend for the D-10 titles. Adding teams to be blown out doesn’t do anyone any good. I don’t think D-10 is intentionally keeping teams out of the playoffs in soccer.
Thanks,
Tom
Never said they were intentionnaly keeping teams out…What I am saying is that the “revenue generating” sports are given more playoff opportunities …look at the numbers Tom ….and the blow out factor does not even come into account …. (football scores from last years playoffs) Sharpsville 48-0 first round last year, West Middlesex 47-0 first round last year, Grove City 49-7 second round last year, Cathedral Prep 49-7 second round last year … This is where we differ … I think that many teams in soccer can create match opportunities that will provide their team with a chance to have a positive result…. Last year it was pretty clear going into the football playoffs which teams would contend for the D-10 titles however they still played all of the games even the blowouts … My question remains why are there more opportunities for teams that participate in revenue generating sports than other sports …. As far as throwing numbers around How many lacrosse teams are there in D-10 … and the other sports have 100 percent participation… If D-10 wants to give all schools the opportunity to take part in the post season so be it …but you cant compare apples and oranges … Football, Basketball and Soccer are comparable team sports…
Tom,
with that being said, last year the FLB Girls Soccer team had a great year, D10 opened it up to 8 teams but yet FLB didn’t get a play-in game even though they deserved it..they were left out due to some mathmatical equation? Thrown in that the FLB/Hickory game wasn’t made up last year despite the efforts of the FLB AD, A win by FLB last year would of changed the playoff structure and their equal representation of regions..
The whole argument is moot anyway because soccer generates revenue. It’s not like soccer loses money.
The blowout factor does come into play. D-10 could have taken eight teams in Class AA and AAA and it would have been much worse. D-10 reduced the number of football games intentionally because of competition where they could have easily made money on those extra games.
FLB,
That was an unusual situation and we will never know why FLB wasn’t given a chance. Who knows if FLB would have even won that make up game?
Thanks,
Tom
Tom you are back to the money issue again and I am attempting to show that there is a disproportionate number of football and basketball teams who have post season opportunities than soccer teams … You seem to be completely ignoring the numbers that clearly show over 50 % of D-10 football teams have post season opportunities almost 50 % (48) of boys basketball teams get to participate over 50% (53) of girls basketball get the opportunity to participate while boys soccer sits at 35% and girls soccer sits at 38% … this clearly shows that athletes who participate in D-10 soccer have less of a chance at post season play than do D-10 football and Basketball players …as a matter of fact using your numbers for all of the other sports boys and girls soccer have the least opportunity for post season play …
I understand that each sport varies in percentages but I don’t see why you are making a point in soccer. Are you saying there is less opportunity because D-10 is against soccer? Are you saying it because D-10 is about money? I guess I don’t see the point in pointing out soccer has less teams in.
My point, very simply, is that D-10 should offer the same opportunity for all of it’s athletes.
I understand that, but I think it really isn’t that cut and dry when it comes to soccer.
Thanks,
Tom
Tom,
I agree with you but that should be decided on the field not by a committee..Just seems that lately there have been too many unusual situations way before the Seneca Basketball fiasco..but I won’t get into that..lol
i’m with you blogmansouth…Tom, you are
honest and fair, and we all appreciate what
erie times news does for soccer, but to make
a statement that “it pretty clear who will
contend for D-10 Titles, and to expand
because of blowouts” is pretty disrespectful
to teams who are considered “not worthy”…
some players just want to experience the
playoff format just once as a good memory,
and to write off any hope that they may
get that chance, and once they possibly do
get that chance that they have no business
being their because someone thinks they will
get blown out is ludicrous. District 10 is
ludicrous….They could have waited 2 weeks
until the Conneaut Merger to place the teams
where they should have been, but, no, they
wanted to get working on football schedules
so they placed Conneaut Football and Soccer
in lower classifications, then told them we
are going to punish you because of where you
are and if you are not perfect, or do not
win a region, you are probably out…they
told the football program “we don’t care if
you win your region or go undefeated, you
will not, more than likely, qualify”. Who
needs football schedules in May anyway?
It’s true that in Soccer many of the playoff
teams are perennially in, and my hats off to
them for doing so, but if Conneaut has 12-13
wins, and that is equal to or better than
some other AA teams, let there be a playin
to determine it…that goes for Franklin,
and some other teams that have winning
records…
Why would soccer be any different from football or basketball? Why would a higher % of teams be eligible for playoffs in ALL other sports? It is very cut and dry for me. When one group receives more opportunity than another there is a problem. If D-10 wants to expand or decrease playoff opportunities based on a “competitive” arguement than I am all for it. But that would mean that D-10 Comm people would and should personally view multiple games of each team so that they can make an accurate assesment of the quality of team. The should also make themselves aware of other “issues” (i.e. injuries etc…)However the starting point should be the same for all sports… No one high school sport should have a greater opportunity for its players to reach post season action than another.
In the end, in my opinion, soccer playoffs are messed up. X # of teams should make the playoffs and it should be set. Whether 4, 6 or 8.. and will not change because one team has a surprising good year (the Arizona Cardinals are off to a surprisingly good start… the NFL isn’t going to take an extra team if they end up narrowly missing the playoffs).
The teams that get “byes” should be #1 and #2, not region winners set before season starts. (could you imagine if the AL Central champ got an automatic bye in MLB because that’s what was determined before the season? That’s a joke!)
It should be top # of teams, ranked 1- whatever and that’s it.
And AW, albeit I agree with you in a sense that it’s not Conneaut’s fault they are in a mainly A-region, I must disagree that any loss to a Class A team is NOT bad. Fairview and MPS are tough A teams, but if they beat an AA team… it doesn’t look good to anyone, esp. the committee.
AW,
I think you took my comments about contenders a little far. My point is you aren’t going to put a team that is 5-6 games below .500 that will lose by 10-12 goals to a top team. You aren’t going to tell that team to travel an hour, lose that poorly, have a bad memory and cost the district money.
There is a reason D-10 had so much trouble expanding the team wrestling tournament. Teams would travel an hour, lose 60-0 and that’s the end of their season instead of maybe winning a few region matches and ending on a positive note.
You have to set a certain standard when it comes to the playoffs. Yes, there are worth teams that might not get in but that happens in every sport. See Harbor Creek football last year and Seneca boys basketball two years ago.
Thanks,
Tom
iroquois will maybe in after tonight beating sa 2-1
How awesome that there is a forum for this. Thank You, Erie Times News! In 2005, despite a great season, Eisenhower was told by the D-10 committee that they weren’t good enough to participate in the playoffs. And despite the outrage this decision generated, the kids turned in their uniforms. After three days of lobbying by both Eisenhower and (by the way) the team chosen in their stead, District 10 acquiesced, siting a rules misinterpretation (hey, didn’t you WRITE the rules?). Eisenhower won the ‘A’ D-10 title that year. My point is this. Here we are seven years later… and we still don’t have an acceptably fair soccer playoff environment. How many other “Eisenhower stories” weren’t written because of D-10′s lack of focus on this subject? And… can we PLEASE get a third referee?
that’s a fair remark, Tom. But I didn’t say
that teams 5-6 games below .500 should be in
playoffs….i was talking about teams that
may possibly be 5-6 games above .500, meaning
they would have to have at least 12 wins…
and there could be several. And yes, I do
agree you need a standard in playoffs, yet
that seems to go out the window when talking
about football playoffs when teams that
barely reach .500 or are at .500 go to the
playoffs. And it will be pointed out that
there are only 10 games in football, so a
5-5 team is justified…in soccer you can
go 12-6 and it’s meaningless. Anyway, as long
as football AD’s are running the show, they
could care less about soccer. Who in their
right mind would schedule 3 and sometimes 4
games a week, back to back games, in soccer?
Football leaning AD’s who haven’t a clue
about how much energy a player in soccer
uses up in 1 game…I say play 16 games in a
season, space out the games a little more,
and start the playoff season about a week
earlier with a few more teams being able to
get in playoffs……….
AW,
I definitely think if a team is 5-6 games above .500 they should be in consideration. I just worry about setting that standard as an automatic way to get in. Then you’ll get teams scheduling the sisters of the poor 10 times a year. I think that is why D-10 relies on region play so much but only they know.
Thanks again,
Tom
The question that should be asked when seeding D10 AA girls teams is strength of schedule. Should a team that finishes second in it’s region but has a 10-8 or 9-9 record not be included in the playoffs, when the reason for their overall record is they have played quality AAA teams rather than weak A teams. Compare the independent games played by Harborcreek, GM and FLB to the independent games played by Mercyhurst and Villa. Simply put first and second place teams from each region in playoffs.
Tom I noticed you said “there is a reson D-10 had so much trouble expanding the wrestling tournament.” … I would once again ask Why D-10 is expanding opportunities for some of its student athletes but not others. Also a school does not automatically qualify for a playoff opportunity. If my understanding is correct a school must submit their intention to participate in D-10 playoffs. If this is the case than AD’s at the individual schools can make the choice as to weather or not they want to participate in D-10 playoffs. So now the choice about transportation costs and the “blowout” factor are the individual schools choice not the D-10 comm.