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Bracketology: Final playoff projections

Here are the final District 10 basketball playoff projections as the brackets are due out next weekend. This week is a little different as I looked at the week ahead and what could happen in the standings. Here is what I think will happen. Before everyone jumps on the projections, remember these are NOT official in any way, just what could happen. Do not take any of these as fact and there are play-in games projected but that does not mean in any way that there will be play-in games. Fans are welcome to comment and post their own projections. Remember, seeds do not mean everything in these projections. Some teams may be seeded lower to avoid first-round matchups with region opponents.

Class A
(3) Erie First vs. (6) Rocky Grove
(4) VisionQuest vs. (5) Eisenhower
Byes: (1) Kennedy Catholic, (2) Cochranton

Class AA
(1) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (8) North East
(4) Lakeview vs. (5) Fairview
(2) West Middlesex vs. (7) Titusville
(3) Saegertown vs. (6) Sharpsville
*ignoring region balance on this one. D-10 might stick to it and put Maplewood or Cambridge in over North East

Class AAA
(7) Sharon vs. (10) Conneaut
(8) Warren vs. (9) Franklin
(1) General McLane vs. Warren-Franklin winner
(4) Meadville vs. (5) Strong Vincent
(2) Hickory vs. Sharon-Conneaut winner
(3) Girard vs. (6) Farrell

Class AAAA
(2) Central Tech vs. (3) McDowell
Bye: (1) Cathedral Prep

Class A
(3) Rocky Grove vs. (6) Commodore Perry
(4) Eisehower vs. (5) Farrell
Byes: (1) Kennedy Catholic, (2) Cochranton)

Class AA
(8) Cambridge Springs vs. (9) Seneca
(1) Sharpsville vs. Cambridge Springs-Seneca winner
(4) North East vs. (5) Sharon
(2) General McLane vs. (7) Mercer
(3) Saegertown vs. (6) Girard

Class AAA
(8) Conneaut vs. (9) Harbor Creek
(1) Franklin vs. Conneaut-Harbor Creek winner
(4) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (5) Slippery Rock
(2) Villa Maria vs. (7) Grove City
(3) Hickory vs. (6) Warren

Class AAAA
(2) Central Tech vs. (3) East
Bye: (1) McDowell

–Tom Reisenweber

Posted in: Basketball

69 Responses to Bracketology: Final playoff projections

  1. steve says:

    If I were ranking teams, I too would rank MP higher than Warren, but if they end up with identical region records and split their games with each other, unless there is a common opponent that beat one and not the other, the seeding has to go to a coin flip doesn’t it according to the D10 handbook? If they say arbitrarily (although it may be true) that MP had a tougher schedule or that margin of victory is a factor I have to believe that is an unfair tiebreaker because it is subjective or truly arbitrary in the case of margin of victory. Seeding can be huge in AAA girls and MP doesn’t have any more right to that 4 seed than Warren does.

  2. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Those aren’t the only factors. If you look at the at-large process, there are a handful of things to consider. There is a lot of ambiguity in the way it is written for the handbook. A coin flip probably won’t come into play at all and I believe that is only used for region champions or automatics.

    I think people get a little confused separating the two criteria. There is a set list for region champions/automatic and a different one for at-large consideration.


  3. steve says:

    Yes the handbook is very ambiguous, I wish D10 took they initiative to make all playoffs qualifications and seeding very clear (other districts do it) but at least it makes for fun bracketology this way …

  4. Carrie says:

    I just remembered that happening a few years back in AAA in the South with Grove City and Slippery Rock and they took GC when SR had the stronger schedule and wins. That year there were a lot of issues with brackets. This year tends to have just as many.

  5. CCBballFan says:

    WM will win boys AA hands down. My predictions are WM over Saegertown in the championship then Lakeview over MP in the consolation. Nobody gives Sae. any credit, they’ve won about 16 straight games.They can play

  6. HCTROJ says:

    Very interesting…

    “I think the committee is moving toward rewarding people for playing top-flight competition,” said Dan O’Neil, chairman of the WPIAL basketball committee.

    “Strength of schedule is becoming more and more important to us. We’re moving away from giving seeds to section champs who come from a weaker section.”

    Read more:

  7. bballman32 says:

    So if Prep loses to Central tonight any chance Saeg gets the #2 seed? Or do you still think they give Prep the #1 seed over WM? Kind of hard to not give WM the #1 seed even if they do have to play Lakeview in Semis. Unless of course they give Saeg the #4 seed like last year. That would allow them to get thier “correct matchups” they always desire.
    I say seed them as thier records indicate. 1,2,3 are the region winners based on record. 4-8 go to at large based on record regardless of what region they are in. Either that or seed them like they did in the old FCVC days and have a predetermined bracket each year.

  8. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Prep plays in AAAA and Mercyhurst plays AA lol. And as I explained a few weeks ago, Saegertown was the 3 seed last year.

    I don’t think you can seed based on overall record. Mercyhurst and West Middlesex were playing brutal schedules this year, including big-time tournaments. I think both are the top seeds and Saegertown is the 3. I keep MP as the 1 seed simply to avoid WM-Lakeview in the semifinals. As much as everyone might object to that, I think we all know it’s the right thing to do.

    I think you can almost throw out overall record when it comes to seeding. Once you start using that to seed teams, every school is going to go schedule the sisters of the poor 10 times a year to make sure they go 10-0 in non-region games.


  9. blogmansouth says:

    Just want o put this out there… A lot is being said about West Middlesex and their chances not only in D-10 but also in the state playoffs… WM is a very good team I have watched them play several times this year and I must say that their sophomore Trey Staunch has the best footwork I have seen in several years.

  10. Tom Reisenweber says:

    He is definitely and up-and-comer not only in hoops but as one of the top quarterbacks in D-10.


  11. guest says:

    seagertown won 16 straight with no quailty wins. there schedule is weak, they havent played a top team since the xmas tourn. there region is weak they will be one and done come playoff time.

  12. guest says:

    C.S basketball team is not as bad as their record. They could have taken the eaiser route like Saegertown and schedule gimme games and have 3 to 4 more wins, but they played a much harder non region schedule. Which in my opinion shows good coahing.

  13. bryan says:

    How can u have 6 teams for class A boys when
    there are only 2 teams that are .500 or better. playoffs are for winners not losers

  14. Tom Reisenweber says:

    3 teams are going to the PIAA playoffs. Not sure you can put only 4 in the D-10 playoffs and send 75% of the field to state.


  15. Husky Watcher says:

    Harbor Creek girls finished strong. Big win vs. Warren. HC dressed only eight players and starting center was out. That was a big win for them. That sophomore they have is something. Hope they get a spot in playoffs, big step for that program.

  16. D10 Fan says:

    When are the D-10 playoffs expected to start next wk?

  17. Tom Reisenweber says:

    D10 Fan,
    If the schedule is the same as last year, Thursday will be AAA boys, Friday will be A and AA boys and all girls games on Saturday. If there are play-ins, those would likely be Tuesday.


  18. brent johnson says:

    can’t girard still win region 6

  19. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Girard can win a share of the region title. Remember these projections were done Sunday.


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