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Bracketology: Final playoff projections

Here are the final District 10 basketball playoff projections as the brackets are due out next weekend. This week is a little different as I looked at the week ahead and what could happen in the standings. Here is what I think will happen. Before everyone jumps on the projections, remember these are NOT official in any way, just what could happen. Do not take any of these as fact and there are play-in games projected but that does not mean in any way that there will be play-in games. Fans are welcome to comment and post their own projections. Remember, seeds do not mean everything in these projections. Some teams may be seeded lower to avoid first-round matchups with region opponents.

Boys
Class A
Quarterfinals
(3) Erie First vs. (6) Rocky Grove
(4) VisionQuest vs. (5) Eisenhower
Byes: (1) Kennedy Catholic, (2) Cochranton

Class AA
Quarterfinals
(1) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (8) North East
(4) Lakeview vs. (5) Fairview
(2) West Middlesex vs. (7) Titusville
(3) Saegertown vs. (6) Sharpsville
*ignoring region balance on this one. D-10 might stick to it and put Maplewood or Cambridge in over North East

Class AAA
Play-in
(7) Sharon vs. (10) Conneaut
(8) Warren vs. (9) Franklin
Quarterfinals
(1) General McLane vs. Warren-Franklin winner
(4) Meadville vs. (5) Strong Vincent
(2) Hickory vs. Sharon-Conneaut winner
(3) Girard vs. (6) Farrell

Class AAAA
Semifinal
(2) Central Tech vs. (3) McDowell
Bye: (1) Cathedral Prep

Girls
Class A
Quarterfinals
(3) Rocky Grove vs. (6) Commodore Perry
(4) Eisehower vs. (5) Farrell
Byes: (1) Kennedy Catholic, (2) Cochranton)

Class AA
Play-in
(8) Cambridge Springs vs. (9) Seneca
Quarterfinals
(1) Sharpsville vs. Cambridge Springs-Seneca winner
(4) North East vs. (5) Sharon
(2) General McLane vs. (7) Mercer
(3) Saegertown vs. (6) Girard

Class AAA
Play-in
(8) Conneaut vs. (9) Harbor Creek
Quarterfinals
(1) Franklin vs. Conneaut-Harbor Creek winner
(4) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (5) Slippery Rock
(2) Villa Maria vs. (7) Grove City
(3) Hickory vs. (6) Warren

Class AAAA
Semifinal
(2) Central Tech vs. (3) East
Bye: (1) McDowell

–Tom Reisenweber

Posted in: Basketball

69 Responses to Bracketology: Final playoff projections

  1. Fachetti Fan says:

    Tom Terrific:
    Several questions/observations about Girls AAA:
    1. I see you project an 8-team field plus a play-in game. Do you think D-10 has ruled out a 6-team field that was discussed earlier?
    2. I am pleased you have Conneaut in a play-in situation. They deserve a chance, but not a place in the top eight after playing their A-AA schedule. Safe to assume you agree?
    3. Once our Huskies beat Corry and Warren this week, any chance Warren or Grove City fall into the play-in game and we get one of the top 7 seeds? I like our girls chances of finishing on a hot streak.
    Thanks. Go Huskies!!!

  2. Joel Snyder says:

    The AAA Boys braket doesn’t make any sence.

  3. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Fachetti Fan,
    If nothing else you are consistently positive lol. I’m not sure what D-10 will do. Just going with my instincts. What helps HC is the fact was handled by Grove City.

    I don’t see GC or SR falling into a play-in game with better region records than HC.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  4. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Why is that Joel?

  5. John M says:

    Tom how can you keep East out of boys AAA ?

  6. Tom Reisenweber says:

    John M,
    My feeling is they will lose twice this week and therefore drop into a fourth-place tie with Warren. Losing to Warren twice would then knock them out. It’s different in Region 5 where Franklin could finish in a tie with Sharon or Farrell and split with both of them.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  7. Jon B. says:

    The AAA boys bracket is most interesting to try and figure out because there are still so many possiblities with only two games left. Here’s my best guess at the final bracket (keep in mind I am taking into account how I feel the last week of games will go.)

    PLAY IN ROUND

    (7)Warren vs (10)Franklin
    (8)Farrell vs (9)Conneaut

    FIRST ROUND

    (1)Girard vs (8)Farrell or (9)Conneaut
    (4)Meadville vs (5)Strong Vincent

    (3)General McLane vs (6)Sharon
    (2)Hickory vs (7)Warren or (10)Franklin

    SEMI FINALS

    (1)Girard vs (5)Strong Vincent
    (2)Hickory vs (6)Sharon

    FINALS

    (1)Girard OVER (2)Hickory

  8. John M says:

    Tom I don`t think East will lose to the Bison.

  9. Tom Reisenweber says:

    John,
    They also play Girard and Harbor Creek.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  10. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Interesting Jon. I still don’t understand why everyone keeps underestimating GM. That’s just me though.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  11. bob says:

    Tom I think you had it right the first time
    (1) Sharpsville vs. (8) Seneca
    (2) General McLane vs. (7) Mercer
    (3) Saegertown vs. (6) Girard
    (4) North East vs. (5) Sharon
    IMO If after things go as most would anticipate GM should not have to play what most consider the third best team in Girard it should be NE and Girard in second round Your recent projection seems like it penalizes GM for beating NE. GM will likely win the region. It looks like 2nd place comes out ahead in your latest projection

    Girard already beat Sharpsville by 14 and Sharon by 19
    Seneca beat Saegertown by 11. Thus i don’t think Cambridge deserves a play in game based on strengh of region Seneca has already earn it. Save your self some money District 10 you will be in the red for a play in game

  12. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Bob,
    I believe either a play-in game happens or Seneca is left out. If Cambridge is .500 you have to use region balance no matter what the money situation is.

    And nothing changed Bob except the addition of a play-in game. I just switched it around to reflect what would happen. The 1 seed is always on the same side of the bracket as the 4 and the 2 with the 3.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  13. Matty Ice says:

    Are you failry sure the D10 committee will award play-in games or are you just guessing based on parody in specific classifications?

    Quite honestly there is no way Conneaut belongs with that group of teams in AAA.

    My predictions for champions for boys:

    A – Kennedy over Cochranton
    AA – WM over MP
    AAA – Hickory over Girard
    AAAA – Prep over McDowell

    After following your blogs and talking with people at games, I’d say most people aren’t necessarrily “down” on General McCLane. But they really are a one man team and aren’t the same type of team they were last year.

    Also, a few wild cards to watch out for: Titusville, Sharon, and Strong Vincent.

  14. steelers says:

    No way cambridge gets in or deserves to be in, region balance or not, they r behind two single a teams in their region, seneca should be in no questions asked they have EARNED it, oh ya they just beat a quad a team Saturday not a great one but still did win, one of there loses is to franklin the number one seed in aaa

  15. Tom Reisenweber says:

    For a “one-man team” they are beating a lot of teams, including Hickory lol.

    When it comes to AAA boys, I am assuming Franklin and Sharon/Farrell will be tied for fourth, giving you 5 teams that might deserve to get in. If you have 4 from Region 6 and Conneaut, you have 10 teams to get in. Last year was a similar situation and D-10 gave two play-in games.

    It’s all a guessing game until D-10 actually releases the bracket.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  16. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Steelers,
    The Seneca boys deserved to get in a few years ago as well but region balance kept them out. I didn’t make the rules, just telling you what might happen.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  17. steelers says:

    If seneca does not get in and cambridge does it just shows what a joke district 10 is but they also showed that with the soccer fiasco in the fall

  18. Team Erie says:

    Marty ice- you have our wild cards but don’t mention Fairview whom beat your mprep d10 runner up and Titusville your wild card.

  19. mchusike says:

    what about iroquois boys it sould go 1.iroquois 2. ne going head to head the iroquois boys have payed will

  20. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Iroquois needs to win out to get in over NE, including an upset of Titusville.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  21. Ryan says:

    Explain to me why McDowell boys deserve a playoff spot after most likely going 0-4 in their region. One would think a playoff spot needs to be earned.

  22. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Ryan,
    I’m not on the D-10 Committee so I couldn’t explain it. The best bet is probably their winning record overall.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  23. Venangocountyhoops says:

    Tom,

    Do you know if the district has any rules or by laws regarding Erie first possibly having a losing record and not being in a region?

  24. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Venangocountyhoops,
    They will be 11-11 after winning the New Penn tournament so it won’t matter.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  25. RSmith says:

    Tom,
    Why does Iroquois need to win out? Most likely both NE and Iroq both go 1-1 this week, leaving them tied. Unless you are assuming NE will beat NW and Fairview this week? D10 site indicates head-to-head is the 1st consideration for at-large ties. Iroq beat them both times. Just a thought.

  26. Tom Reisenweber says:

    RSmith,
    I am assuming NE wins out because they beat Fairview and NW the first time around. However, if NE loses to either, Iroquois is in the driver’s seat if Region 4 gets a fourth playoff spot.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  27. crawfordcounty says:

    im ganna agree with you tom and say the D-10 should ignore region balance this year. Clearly cambridge just doesn’t have it. I am just in shock of how bad their team got after losing just two players.I mean they return 4 varsity starters and can’t even get to .500? if for some reason they do pull the region equality card who gets in?

  28. Tom Reisenweber says:

    crawfordcounty,
    Cambridge would probably get in over Maplewood with two easier games left. That would leave North East/Iroquois out of the playoffs.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  29. BBall Fan says:

    I believe your record for Erie First is incorrect……I think they have only lost 1 game all year.

  30. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Bball Fan,
    Erie First had to forfeit 11 games last month after PIAA violations.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  31. BBall Fan says:

    I didn’t know that, thanks…….are you able to explain the violations? Will they still have their full squad for the playoffs, because if so, I think they will beat Cochranton and give KC a challenge.

  32. Brian says:

    What would happen if Sharpsville lost to Lakeview on tuesday and at Greenville on friday to finish 5-7 in league and Wilmington won vs Greenville on tuesday but would lose to W.M. on friday to finish 5-7 as well in league. Would they take both or what? Sharpsville and Wilmington did split with each other.

  33. Tom Reisenweber says:

    BBall Fan,
    They didn’t fill out any paperwork on the six international players. Once they found out, Erie First filled out the paperwork and should be good to go now for the playoffs with a roster intact.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  34. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Brian,
    Good question. If last year is any indication, there could be a play-in game between Sharpsville and Wilmington. It happened with Fairview and Northwestern last year.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  35. crawfordcounty says:

    possible scenario could be CS vs Wilmington play in game and NE vs Sharpsvill play in game?

  36. J.J. says:

    In AA boys I don’t think anyone can contend with West Middlesex. I saw them a few times this year and see them as a legitimate shot at the Western Finals. MAYBE MP can keep it closer if they slow the game down, but I don’t see anyone beating them.

    In AAAA boys it is Prep’s to lose obviously. Central gives them the most trouble, but I can’t see anyone beating them this year. They will keep winning until they get drilled by a team from the East.

    AAA is by far the most even playing field because there isn’t one dominant team. I can actually see any of those top 6 (Girard, SV, GM, Hickory, Meadville, Sharon) getting hot and winning it. I’ve also heard from a pretty reliable source that there will be play-in games this year with the Conneaut situation added to the mess of the 4th spot in each region. Give me a final 4 of Girard, SV, Sharon, and Hickory. And the D10 final of Sharon and Girard. That would be a good game with opposing styles.

  37. Tom Reisenweber says:

    If CS gets in, they’ll probably have their spot. If region balance is used, I could see maybe Sharpsville-Wilmington for a play in game.

  38. Tom Reisenweber says:

    J.J.,
    Regarding AAAA, there’s a little nationally-ranked team named New Castle that might have something to say about Prep going to the PIAA semifinals lol.

    I still don’t understand the lack of respect General McLane gets. GM is always a D-10 contender and has arguably the best player in D-10. I think AAA is definitely GM’s title to lose.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  39. Golfpro says:

    Crawford, Cambridge is not getting in, they have no wins vs a team with a winning record and other then the first half of the first cochranton game they have not even been competitive. In AA with no real power from district 12 West Middlesex is a serious state title contender. Gm is the clear favorite in AAA, the lack of respect for them is laughable. Lotta hate for gm maybe. In AAAA Prep is exactly the kind of team new castle does not want to see, preps guards will handle new castles press, I see that game as a toss up.

  40. crawfordcounty says:

    Tom,
    what do you think about the coaches in the crawford county area?

  41. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Solid coaches. I lost most of the coaches in District 10. All are underpaid for the amount of time and effort they put in.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  42. John M says:

    Tom I agree with you GM should be the favorite,they are the defending champs and until somebody beats them they should receive the respect they deserve.

  43. Matty Ice says:

    I agree about the point on underpaid and underrated coaches in the area. I think a lot of programs are spoiled with great coaches in both the North and Southern D10.

    As far as GM, I have all the respect for that program. Good kids, good coaches. I just have a hunch they won’t win it this year. Mason is good no question, but other teams can maybe key on him.

  44. bballman32 says:

    What is your take on Saegertown boys? You give them any chance at all?

  45. Tim B says:

    AA boys bracket (very difficult to come up with the seedings)…

    First Round

    (1)West Middlesex over (8)North East
    (5)Titusville over (4)Saegertown

    (2)Mercyhurst Prep over (7)Sharpsville
    (3)Lakeview over (6)Fairview

    Semi Finals

    (1)West Middlesex over (5)Titusville
    (2)Mercyhurst Prep over (3)Lakeview

    Finals

    (1)West Middlesex over (2)Mercyhurst Prep

    AAA boys bracket

    Play-in Round

    (10)Franklin over (7)Warren
    (8)Farrell over (9)Conneaut

    First Round

    (1)Girard over (8)Farrell
    (5)Strong Vincent over (4)Meadville

    (6)Sharon over (3)General McLane
    (2)Hickory over (10)Franklin

    Semi Finals

    (1)Girard over (5)Strong Vincent
    (6)Sharon over (2)Hickory

    Finals

    (6)Sharon over (1)Girard

  46. Joel Snyder says:

    My Predictions…

    Boys:
    A – Kennedy Catholic Def. Erie First
    AA – Mercyhurst Prep def. Saegertown
    AAA – Girard def. Hickory
    AAAA – Cathedral Prep def. Central Tech

    Girls:
    A – Kennedy Catholic def. Rocky Grove
    AA – General McLane def. North East
    AAA – Franklin def. Villa Maria
    AAAA – McDowell def. Central Tech

  47. Carrie says:

    For AAA girls, won’t MPrep and Warren have identical records and Warren won the last game so they should be a higher seed? Did I miss something?

  48. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Carrie,
    The second result doesn’t always decide the seed. It’s one of the factors. Mercyhurst’s strength of schedule and the fact MP won in regulation convicingly against Warren. That might decide it.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  49. Tom Reisenweber says:

    Joel,
    Might want to check out that West Middlesex boys team. They might win every D-10 playoff game by at least 15 lol.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  50. Tom Reisenweber says:

    bballman32,
    Lots of size and experience. If the Panthers can continue to get strong guard play, anything can happen in their playoff run.

    Thanks,
    Tom

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