Bracketology: Playoff projections

   February 3, 2013 3:00 pm    51

 

Below are the latest District 10 basketball playoff projections. Please remember these are strictly opinion and nothing is official. Readers are welcome to post questions, comments or their own projections. Nothing will be official until the D-10 Committee releases the brackets. These projections also do not include possible play-in games although they are unlikely.

Boys
Class A
Quarterfinals
(3) Erie First vs. (6) VisionQuest
(4) Rocky Grove vs. (5) Eisenhower
Byes: (1) Kennedy Catholic, (2) Cochranton

Class AA
Quarterfinals
(1) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (8) Reynolds
(2) West Middlesex vs. (7) North East
(3) Saegertown vs. (6) Titusville
(4) Lakeview vs. (5) Fairview

Class AAA
Quarterfinals
(1) General McLane vs. (8) Farrell
(2) Hickory vs. (7) East
(3) Strong Vincent vs. (6) Meadville
(4) Franklin vs. (5) Girard

Class AAA
Semifinal
(2) Central Tech vs. (3) McDowell
Bye: (1) Cathedral Prep

Girls
Class A
Quarterfinals
(3) Farrell vs. (6) Rocky Grove
(4) Eisenhower vs. (5) Commodore Perry
Byes: (1) Kennedy Catholic, (2) Cochranton

Class AA
Quarterfinals
(1) Sharpsville vs. (8) Seneca
(2) General McLane vs. (7) Mercer
(3) Saegertown vs. (6) Girard
(4) North East vs. (5) Sharon

Class AAA
Quarterfinals
(1) Villa Maria vs. (8) Slippery Rock
(2) Franklin vs. (7) Warren
(3) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (6) Grove City
(4) Hickory vs. (5) Conneaut

Class AAAA
Championship
(1) McDowell vs. (2) Central Tech

–Tom Reisenweber

 

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51 Responses to “Bracketology: Playoff projections”

  1. Todd Palmer says:

    How do figure Mercyhurst Prep as a 1 over West Middlesex?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Todd,
      I put MP at 1 so they would play Lakeview in the second round. Lakeview is going to be the 4 and I don’t think D-10 will make Middlesex play them in the semifinals.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  2. Todd Palmer says:

    I see.

  3. CrawfordCoach says:

    West middlesex is clearly the #1 team. The D10 moving teams around so they get the match ups they want is wrong.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      So Crawford Coach it is fair for WM to play Lakeview in the semifinals in order to keep meaningless seeds true?

  4. Greg says:

    Why not just make Saegertown fourth seed. If the seeds are meaningless they play Fairview/Titusville, depending on how their region shakes down. West Middlesex is then #1. WM clearly the best team in D-10.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Greg,
      The three region automatics are the top three seeds. A region automatic will always have a higher seed than an at-large team.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  5. D-10 Fan says:

    Mr. R.,
    AAA Girls: I understand your reasoning — 4 teams from the South, 3 from the North plus Conneaut. Let’s say Villa wins out, leaving a MP-Warren tie for second. How do you think D-10 will sort out the North seedings while factoring in Conneaut’s impressive record playing primarily an A-AA schedule?
    Thanks.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      D-10 Fan,
      I think MP will get a higher seed than Warren. I think the only thing the Dragons have going for them in that matchup is they won the latest head-to-head meeting. MP is probably ahead of Warren in every other consideration.

      It’ll be interesting to see where they put Conneaut. I put them at 5 because I think there are the big four with Franklin, Hickory, Villa and MP. I put Warren at 7 because they can’t play MP or Villa in the first round.

      At this point, it’s just a guess. D-10 could flip everything on its ear and put Conneaut at the 3 seed because of how dominant they were in their region.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  6. D-10 Fan says:

    Thanks Mr. R.,
    I recall last year Hickory received a higher seed than Franklin. I was thinking they split their two games, ended tied and D-10 awarded the higher seed based on the result of the last meeting. But don’t hold me to that. I really wish D-10 would publish its selection procedure so fans always know where teams stand.
    It would be a real shame to reward Conneaut for playing that A-AA schedule. Not picking on Conneaut, but certainly not fair to the AAA teams who have dished out and taken each others best shots all season. They’ve earned the high seeds. Conneaut should replace the fourth team from one region, probably the north.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      D-10 Fan,
      I think they did award based on the second meeting but everything else considered was about even. I would say MP has the leg up in most considerations like strength of schedule, margin of victory against common opponents, etc. You never know though, Warren could get a higher seed, I just think D-10 will do whatever possible to avoid Franklin, Hickory, MP and Villa from playing each other in the first round. If Warren gets the higher seed, MP would have to play either Franklin or Hickory right away.

      As far as Conneaut goes, they could very well be the 8 seed. I think there is too much unknown right now to really know what they land. I would say they could be any seed except 1 or 2.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  7. chris says:

    Tom,

    Nice to see that you have the Seneca girls in the playoffs. They deserve it!!!

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Chris,
      Whether that happens or not I think Seneca should be in. It’s going to come down to if D-10 strictly enforces region balance again. That final spot will likely come down to Seneca and Cambridge Springs but the Bobcats can almost force D-10 into a bad situation by upsetting GM and Girard. A split keeps Seneca in fourth place by itself.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  8. Adam M says:

    How does northeast even get in?? they split with Seneca and Lost both games to Iroquois. I would think one of those team should be listed ahead of them based on what they do in their region play

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Adam,
      Right now it’s a three-way tie and I was looking at the remaining schedule for each team. All three have a brutal remaining four games but I think NE will finish one game ahead of Seneca and Iroquois. I could see NE going 3-1, while Seneca and Iroquois 2-2 each. I could be wrong but we’ll see over the next two weeks. It should be fun either way.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  9. crawfordcounty says:

    cambridge springs is 4-12, if theyhappen to win out their last six very winnable games to finish 10-12, would they have a strong chance a playoffs pulling the region equality card?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      crawfordcounty,
      It is possible but being below .500 will not help. In fact, CS would only be at .500 in the region. D-10 can’t ignore region balance so anything is possible at this point.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  10. Bill says:

    Tom,

    What would it take in double A Boys for the fourth place seed out of region 4 not make it because the fourth place seed out of region 2 makes it? Do they got based upon region record or overall record? Play in game?

    Bill

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Bill,
      It may not even matter if they take Cambridge Springs or Maplewood. D-10 considers region and overall record but neither fourth place team in Region 2 or 4 should feel like they are in. They have to keep winning and hope.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  11. Larry says:

    Do you think the Conneaut boys are going to be left out in AAA? The way I see it there are 6 teams for sure: SV, Girard, GM, Franklin, Hickory, and Meadville.

    The other two spots comes down to Warren/East or Sharon/Farrel or Conneaut

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Larry,
      It’ll be up to D-10. I think Conneaut hovering near .500 with an A-AA schedule doesn’t warrant a playoff spot but that’s just opinion. Conneaut can really impress D-10 by winning their last five games. I think if the Eagles win their last five, they are in at 12-7. That does meant winning at Saegertown in the final game.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  12. Adam M says:

    Northeast has Union city,fairview, northwestern and Titusville. 3-1??? they could go 2-2 or 1-3 since they bearly beat Norhtwestern the first time. yeah MP is undefeated but there is no way they should be listed in front of west middlesex.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Adam M,
      NE went 3-1 against those teams in the first half so why is it impossible for them to do it again? They’ve already done it lol.

      I already explained in an earlier comment that WM is 2 so they don’t face Lakeview in the second round. Obviously WM is the top team and I think it’s obvious Lakeview will be the 4 seed. In order for them not to meet in the second round, which I don’t think D-10 will make them play in the semifinals, WM has to be the 2.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  13. tom says:

    If D-10 changed wording to region winners were guarentied play off spot instead of a certain seeded spot could solve alot of problems every year in many brackets

  14. CrawfordCoach says:

    Meaningless seeds? Where they put the teams can have huge impacts for how well they do. If the seeds are so meaningless why not just put the top 8 teams in a hat and draw the games.
    Sorry, If things continue as they are the seeds should be W.M. #1, M.P. #2, Saeg #3, and Lakeview #4. Oh, and last year Saegertown won thier region and were put at the #4 seed so they dont always give the region winners the top 4 seeds. They gave North East the 3 seed.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      CrawfordCoach,
      What I am saying is seeds can be altered to make sure the matchups are correct.

      Actually, Saegertown was not the fourth seed last year. Looking at the bracket, the three automatics were Lakeview, Mercyhurst Prep and Saegertown. North East was an at-large team meaning they are the 4 seed. More proof that Lakeview was the No. 1 seed is they played the winner of a play-in game. You don’t give a lower seed a play-in winner. Look at the NCAA tournament.

      That means last year Lakeview (1) played North East (4) in the second round and Mercyhurst Prep (2) played Saegertown (3). Having a better overall record does not automatically make you the higher seed.

      Last year was a perfect example of how D-10 moved the seeds around to avoid two top teams from the same region playing in the second round.

      As far as this year goes, I am telling you that there is a great chance D-10 will not put Lakeview against West Middlesex in the second round. MP will be the 1 and have to play Lakeview, the 4, in the second round, while West Middlesex (2) will get Saegertown (3) assuming all four win.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  15. CrawfordCoach says:

    oops should say top 3 seeds.

  16. bill says:

    it should be d10s responsibility to try and get the best teams onto the stae tourney even though it may take some shuffling

  17. CrawfordCoach says:

    Last year prep was the 1 seed. The play in game was I do believe fairview and northwestern and was because they tied in all aspects. wilmington was 8 last year.
    But to get back on topic. Manipulating seeds to get the desired teams they want to advance is wrong. Who cares if lakeview has to play west middlesex. If that is how they dal so be it.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      CrawfordCoach,
      No, the top seed in any tournament plays the play-in winner. Let’s say for argument’s sake that there was a Region 2 tournament and one team bows out giving you six. You have a play-in game between the 4th and 5th place teams. Are you going to have the winner play the No. 1 seed or 2? MP was the 2 seed last year. It’s a fact.

      I think what is ironic about your argument is you want D-10 not to change the seeds and let teams play who they play no matter what. At the same time, you want the best teams to move on to the PIAA playoffs. It can’t be both ways. I’m telling you what D-10 has done in the past, I don’t make the decisions. There is maybe a 5% chance Lakeview and West Middlesex play in the second round. Mercyhurst Prep will get one and Saegertown will get the other, assuming all four win in the quarterfinals.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  18. D-10 Fan says:

    Bill,
    I could not disagree more with your belief on “D-10′s responsibility.” Nobody should predetermine which teams they believe are best. Playoff berths should be set by results only, not reputation. If a “power” stumbles during the season and ends up behind a “weaker” team in the standings, the “weaker” team should get the better seed and the “power” will have to fight its way through a tougher draw. There should be no manipulation to get the matchup some D-10 committee member wants to see.
    The brackets (with tie-breakers) should be set and made public at the start of the season so all teams and their fans know where they stand at all times. Leave the “negotiations behind closed doors” for the NCAA.

  19. Wally B. says:

    Tom,

    I think your seeds are spot on – good job!! Keep up the good work.

  20. Borofan says:

    Tom,
    Looks like you are using the same logic in the Girls AA seedings. If GM wins out then they really should be the #1 overall AA seed. Sharpsville/Saegertown #2 & #3. North East would be #4. You have GM #2 in order keep them from playing NE in the second round. Honestly Girard s/b #5 but again D-10 will try to keep NE/Girard from playing in the first round. Logical.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Borofan,
      If you want to use logic, GM NE and Girard would be the 1, 2 and 3 seeds lol. But if Region 4 gets 4 teams, the seeds are pretty much meaningless. D-10 does pair up region opponents in the first round so you just take those 4 and give them various teams in the first round. The only seeding you would use is to make sure GM, if they win the region, would face the lowest seed possible, which would be the winner of Seneca and their opponent.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  21. jeff says:

    Tom,
    I think MP was the top seed in AA boys last year because they were the team on the top of the bracket. Everytime I see the D10 bracket the top seed has the top line. In regards to the play-in game I think Lakeview got the winner of the play-in game because D10 didnt want the winner of that game to play a team from their region in the first round. Other than that you are right on the money with your brackets and D10 will not have WM and Lakeview play in the 2nd round. Thanks for your hard work sir.

  22. blogmansouth says:

    Tom,

    1. I don’t think in class A Eisenhower should be in with a 2-6 /5-13 record … my thought is a 4 team bracket with a playin game …
    2.Class AA boys should be a 6 team bracket
    3. Class AAA boys 8 team bracket
    4. Class AAAA 2 team bracket
    * sorry class A and AA but 8 quality teams are not in the cards this year.

    GIRLS
    Class A and AA right on target
    AAA and AAAA also right on target

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Blogmansouth.
      The way things should be and the way things D-10 do them could be different. D-10 has taken teams with below .500 records to fill out brackets but we’ll see.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  23. crawfordcounty says:

    so you are telling me that northwestern/fairview got the #8 seed loast year over a terrible 9-13 Wilmington? that just doesnt make sense. MP was the #1 seed. you are right it doesnt make sense to give the play in game winner to the number 2 seed, but then again the d-10 commitee doesnt make sense. i do not care what logic they do they have favorites. it just amazes me that when one of their favorites (fairview) had a good chance to be voted out of the playoff bracket they get a play in game that is rare, but yet the 17-5 Seneca boys basketball team gets ripped off of not only a top 8 seed, but they do not even get a playin game. if fairview would have been 17-5, ranked top five in the district and was the sole owner of first place, they would have got themselves a play in game. someone on that committee needs to be fired to make room for you Tom, put some logic in their heads

  24. crawfordcounty says:

    sorry *sole owner of fourth place. not first

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Crawfordcounty,
      A lot of it was confusing last year. In most traditional brackets the play-in winner is the lowest seed but who knows at this point lol.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  25. bill says:

    my point is [as tom has said]the only spots pre determined are your 3 champs after that there is no definate seeding which enables the committee to try and get matchups that after a 22 game eye test provide us with the best chance of the 2 best teams in the finals

  26. Team Erie says:

    Crawford county, the committee did not have a chance to leave Fairview out of playoffs last year. Them and northwestern had same region record and when they looked at all tie breakers and still was tied. The only solution was to have a play in last year. Now if your referring to soccer then your right but not in hoops. Fairview has a solid basketball program. If you can remember after winning the play in game they almost beat lake view 33-30 with 3 freshmen starters. The team that should of been left out last year was Wilmington. No comparison in their independent schedule compared to Fairview which Fairview still managed a better record.

  27. Team Erie says:

    And Seneca that year had a chance. They lost the last game at Fairview. That game determined the 3rd place team in region that year. There was no tie. Last year nwestern and Fairview were tied for 3rd not 4th .

  28. crawfordcounty says:

    team erie,
    i do not disagree with you about leaving wilmington out. but if your trying to break a tie breaker inbetween those two teams last year you choose northwestern. they were the only team to knock off the region champs, they may have been tied in all aspects, but that win should have put them over the edge of fairview. and regardless if seneca lost that game they were a top 5 seed in the DISTRICT, had the overall best record in that region and they took a 500 terrible reynolds team into playoffs. 4th place or 1st place those boys deserved a spot in playoffs. leaving seneca out has made me hate the way the commitee decides to run things. the goal should be to place the top8 teams in playoffs end of story. now yet again this year im from crawford county and would love to see cambridge or mwood make playoffs but there is no way they should. but with “region equality” they can make it with apparently a 9-13 record leaving the fourth place team from either the north or south region out wich would be a clear mistake. now if they do not bring a team from crawford to playoffs then i will be making some complaints. they had no just in letting wilmington in last year with 9-13 record but they did. so if mwood or cs reaches that record then i expect them to get in. im tired of all the reasoning and favorites behind the committee. lets get some consistancy in there. VOTE TOM ON BOARD

  29. D.T. says:

    Tom,
    I think in AAA Boys Conneaut will be involved in a play in game for either the 8th or 7th seed. Depends on which region 5 or 6 ends up with the 8th seed. (even though last years play in games didn’t create the revenue they anticipated). i dont agree with it just figured they would do this for a fair chance. then there are no arguements/drama. what do you think? and how do you put GM as a 1? and Hickory as a 2? i agree but overall records show different. doesnt really matter though. if any of these questions were previously answered i am sorry. Thanks

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      D.T.,
      Easy call on GM-Hickory. GM beat Hickory this season. I know it was the first game of the year but counts the same as if it were the 22nd game.

      Too much can happen in AAA to really know. Don’t be surprised if East is below .500 and in fourth and Conneaut is just simply put into their slot. We could end up with 11 teams with a case as well. Let’s say Franklin and the loser of Sharon-Farrell ties for fourth in Region 5 and Warren and East tie for fourth in Region 6. That gives you 10 teams with a case and Conneaut.

      This should be a wild week.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  30. Bob says:

    If Conneaut boys finish anywhere less then the Region champion in a A/AA region they have NO claim or argument to get into the tournament. East, Warren, Sharon ,Farrell and Franklin all clearly deserve to be in the playoffs before Conneaut.

  31. DT says:

    Tom,
    Good call on gm-hickory that slipped my memory. It should be a wild week. Warren vs. SV, Sharon vs. Farrell, Hickory vs. Franklin. Overall record wise Sharon still plays New Castle I believe.

    To bob,
    saegertown just clinched region title tonight with win over cochranton so conneaut wont even have a share of that. I agree that they shouldnt be In the playoffs. Just have a hunch they will get a shot atleast with a play in game.

    Thanks for your time tom. You do great work on here.

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