Bracketology: Final playoff projections

By | February 10, 2013 5:00 pm | 69 Comments

 

Here are the final District 10 basketball playoff projections as the brackets are due out next weekend. This week is a little different as I looked at the week ahead and what could happen in the standings. Here is what I think will happen. Before everyone jumps on the projections, remember these are NOT official in any way, just what could happen. Do not take any of these as fact and there are play-in games projected but that does not mean in any way that there will be play-in games. Fans are welcome to comment and post their own projections. Remember, seeds do not mean everything in these projections. Some teams may be seeded lower to avoid first-round matchups with region opponents.

Boys
Class A
Quarterfinals
(3) Erie First vs. (6) Rocky Grove
(4) VisionQuest vs. (5) Eisenhower
Byes: (1) Kennedy Catholic, (2) Cochranton

Class AA
Quarterfinals
(1) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (8) North East
(4) Lakeview vs. (5) Fairview
(2) West Middlesex vs. (7) Titusville
(3) Saegertown vs. (6) Sharpsville
*ignoring region balance on this one. D-10 might stick to it and put Maplewood or Cambridge in over North East

Class AAA
Play-in
(7) Sharon vs. (10) Conneaut
(8) Warren vs. (9) Franklin
Quarterfinals
(1) General McLane vs. Warren-Franklin winner
(4) Meadville vs. (5) Strong Vincent
(2) Hickory vs. Sharon-Conneaut winner
(3) Girard vs. (6) Farrell

Class AAAA
Semifinal
(2) Central Tech vs. (3) McDowell
Bye: (1) Cathedral Prep

Girls
Class A
Quarterfinals
(3) Rocky Grove vs. (6) Commodore Perry
(4) Eisehower vs. (5) Farrell
Byes: (1) Kennedy Catholic, (2) Cochranton)

Class AA
Play-in
(8) Cambridge Springs vs. (9) Seneca
Quarterfinals
(1) Sharpsville vs. Cambridge Springs-Seneca winner
(4) North East vs. (5) Sharon
(2) General McLane vs. (7) Mercer
(3) Saegertown vs. (6) Girard

Class AAA
Play-in
(8) Conneaut vs. (9) Harbor Creek
Quarterfinals
(1) Franklin vs. Conneaut-Harbor Creek winner
(4) Mercyhurst Prep vs. (5) Slippery Rock
(2) Villa Maria vs. (7) Grove City
(3) Hickory vs. (6) Warren

Class AAAA
Semifinal
(2) Central Tech vs. (3) East
Bye: (1) McDowell

–Tom Reisenweber

 

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69 Responses to “Bracketology: Final playoff projections”

  1. Fachetti Fan says:

    Tom Terrific:
    Several questions/observations about Girls AAA:
    1. I see you project an 8-team field plus a play-in game. Do you think D-10 has ruled out a 6-team field that was discussed earlier?
    2. I am pleased you have Conneaut in a play-in situation. They deserve a chance, but not a place in the top eight after playing their A-AA schedule. Safe to assume you agree?
    3. Once our Huskies beat Corry and Warren this week, any chance Warren or Grove City fall into the play-in game and we get one of the top 7 seeds? I like our girls chances of finishing on a hot streak.
    Thanks. Go Huskies!!!

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Fachetti Fan,
      If nothing else you are consistently positive lol. I’m not sure what D-10 will do. Just going with my instincts. What helps HC is the fact was handled by Grove City.

      I don’t see GC or SR falling into a play-in game with better region records than HC.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  2. Joel Snyder says:

    The AAA Boys braket doesn’t make any sence.

  3. John M says:

    Tom how can you keep East out of boys AAA ?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      John M,
      My feeling is they will lose twice this week and therefore drop into a fourth-place tie with Warren. Losing to Warren twice would then knock them out. It’s different in Region 5 where Franklin could finish in a tie with Sharon or Farrell and split with both of them.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  4. Jon B. says:

    The AAA boys bracket is most interesting to try and figure out because there are still so many possiblities with only two games left. Here’s my best guess at the final bracket (keep in mind I am taking into account how I feel the last week of games will go.)

    PLAY IN ROUND

    (7)Warren vs (10)Franklin
    (8)Farrell vs (9)Conneaut

    FIRST ROUND

    (1)Girard vs (8)Farrell or (9)Conneaut
    (4)Meadville vs (5)Strong Vincent

    (3)General McLane vs (6)Sharon
    (2)Hickory vs (7)Warren or (10)Franklin

    SEMI FINALS

    (1)Girard vs (5)Strong Vincent
    (2)Hickory vs (6)Sharon

    FINALS

    (1)Girard OVER (2)Hickory

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Interesting Jon. I still don’t understand why everyone keeps underestimating GM. That’s just me though.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  5. John M says:

    Tom I don`t think East will lose to the Bison.

  6. bob says:

    Tom I think you had it right the first time
    (1) Sharpsville vs. (8) Seneca
    (2) General McLane vs. (7) Mercer
    (3) Saegertown vs. (6) Girard
    (4) North East vs. (5) Sharon
    IMO If after things go as most would anticipate GM should not have to play what most consider the third best team in Girard it should be NE and Girard in second round Your recent projection seems like it penalizes GM for beating NE. GM will likely win the region. It looks like 2nd place comes out ahead in your latest projection

    Girard already beat Sharpsville by 14 and Sharon by 19
    Seneca beat Saegertown by 11. Thus i don’t think Cambridge deserves a play in game based on strengh of region Seneca has already earn it. Save your self some money District 10 you will be in the red for a play in game

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Bob,
      I believe either a play-in game happens or Seneca is left out. If Cambridge is .500 you have to use region balance no matter what the money situation is.

      And nothing changed Bob except the addition of a play-in game. I just switched it around to reflect what would happen. The 1 seed is always on the same side of the bracket as the 4 and the 2 with the 3.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  7. Matty Ice says:

    Are you failry sure the D10 committee will award play-in games or are you just guessing based on parody in specific classifications?

    Quite honestly there is no way Conneaut belongs with that group of teams in AAA.

    My predictions for champions for boys:

    A – Kennedy over Cochranton
    AA – WM over MP
    AAA – Hickory over Girard
    AAAA – Prep over McDowell

    After following your blogs and talking with people at games, I’d say most people aren’t necessarrily “down” on General McCLane. But they really are a one man team and aren’t the same type of team they were last year.

    Also, a few wild cards to watch out for: Titusville, Sharon, and Strong Vincent.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      For a “one-man team” they are beating a lot of teams, including Hickory lol.

      When it comes to AAA boys, I am assuming Franklin and Sharon/Farrell will be tied for fourth, giving you 5 teams that might deserve to get in. If you have 4 from Region 6 and Conneaut, you have 10 teams to get in. Last year was a similar situation and D-10 gave two play-in games.

      It’s all a guessing game until D-10 actually releases the bracket.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  8. steelers says:

    No way cambridge gets in or deserves to be in, region balance or not, they r behind two single a teams in their region, seneca should be in no questions asked they have EARNED it, oh ya they just beat a quad a team Saturday not a great one but still did win, one of there loses is to franklin the number one seed in aaa

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Steelers,
      The Seneca boys deserved to get in a few years ago as well but region balance kept them out. I didn’t make the rules, just telling you what might happen.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  9. steelers says:

    If seneca does not get in and cambridge does it just shows what a joke district 10 is but they also showed that with the soccer fiasco in the fall

  10. Team Erie says:

    Marty ice- you have our wild cards but don’t mention Fairview whom beat your mprep d10 runner up and Titusville your wild card.

  11. mchusike says:

    what about iroquois boys it sould go 1.iroquois 2. ne going head to head the iroquois boys have payed will

  12. Ryan says:

    Explain to me why McDowell boys deserve a playoff spot after most likely going 0-4 in their region. One would think a playoff spot needs to be earned.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Ryan,
      I’m not on the D-10 Committee so I couldn’t explain it. The best bet is probably their winning record overall.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  13. Venangocountyhoops says:

    Tom,

    Do you know if the district has any rules or by laws regarding Erie first possibly having a losing record and not being in a region?

  14. RSmith says:

    Tom,
    Why does Iroquois need to win out? Most likely both NE and Iroq both go 1-1 this week, leaving them tied. Unless you are assuming NE will beat NW and Fairview this week? D10 site indicates head-to-head is the 1st consideration for at-large ties. Iroq beat them both times. Just a thought.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      RSmith,
      I am assuming NE wins out because they beat Fairview and NW the first time around. However, if NE loses to either, Iroquois is in the driver’s seat if Region 4 gets a fourth playoff spot.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  15. crawfordcounty says:

    im ganna agree with you tom and say the D-10 should ignore region balance this year. Clearly cambridge just doesn’t have it. I am just in shock of how bad their team got after losing just two players.I mean they return 4 varsity starters and can’t even get to .500? if for some reason they do pull the region equality card who gets in?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      crawfordcounty,
      Cambridge would probably get in over Maplewood with two easier games left. That would leave North East/Iroquois out of the playoffs.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  16. BBall Fan says:

    I believe your record for Erie First is incorrect……I think they have only lost 1 game all year.

  17. BBall Fan says:

    I didn’t know that, thanks…….are you able to explain the violations? Will they still have their full squad for the playoffs, because if so, I think they will beat Cochranton and give KC a challenge.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      BBall Fan,
      They didn’t fill out any paperwork on the six international players. Once they found out, Erie First filled out the paperwork and should be good to go now for the playoffs with a roster intact.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  18. Brian says:

    What would happen if Sharpsville lost to Lakeview on tuesday and at Greenville on friday to finish 5-7 in league and Wilmington won vs Greenville on tuesday but would lose to W.M. on friday to finish 5-7 as well in league. Would they take both or what? Sharpsville and Wilmington did split with each other.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Brian,
      Good question. If last year is any indication, there could be a play-in game between Sharpsville and Wilmington. It happened with Fairview and Northwestern last year.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  19. crawfordcounty says:

    possible scenario could be CS vs Wilmington play in game and NE vs Sharpsvill play in game?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      If CS gets in, they’ll probably have their spot. If region balance is used, I could see maybe Sharpsville-Wilmington for a play in game.

  20. J.J. says:

    In AA boys I don’t think anyone can contend with West Middlesex. I saw them a few times this year and see them as a legitimate shot at the Western Finals. MAYBE MP can keep it closer if they slow the game down, but I don’t see anyone beating them.

    In AAAA boys it is Prep’s to lose obviously. Central gives them the most trouble, but I can’t see anyone beating them this year. They will keep winning until they get drilled by a team from the East.

    AAA is by far the most even playing field because there isn’t one dominant team. I can actually see any of those top 6 (Girard, SV, GM, Hickory, Meadville, Sharon) getting hot and winning it. I’ve also heard from a pretty reliable source that there will be play-in games this year with the Conneaut situation added to the mess of the 4th spot in each region. Give me a final 4 of Girard, SV, Sharon, and Hickory. And the D10 final of Sharon and Girard. That would be a good game with opposing styles.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      J.J.,
      Regarding AAAA, there’s a little nationally-ranked team named New Castle that might have something to say about Prep going to the PIAA semifinals lol.

      I still don’t understand the lack of respect General McLane gets. GM is always a D-10 contender and has arguably the best player in D-10. I think AAA is definitely GM’s title to lose.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  21. Golfpro says:

    Crawford, Cambridge is not getting in, they have no wins vs a team with a winning record and other then the first half of the first cochranton game they have not even been competitive. In AA with no real power from district 12 West Middlesex is a serious state title contender. Gm is the clear favorite in AAA, the lack of respect for them is laughable. Lotta hate for gm maybe. In AAAA Prep is exactly the kind of team new castle does not want to see, preps guards will handle new castles press, I see that game as a toss up.

  22. crawfordcounty says:

    Tom,
    what do you think about the coaches in the crawford county area?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Solid coaches. I lost most of the coaches in District 10. All are underpaid for the amount of time and effort they put in.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  23. John M says:

    Tom I agree with you GM should be the favorite,they are the defending champs and until somebody beats them they should receive the respect they deserve.

  24. Matty Ice says:

    I agree about the point on underpaid and underrated coaches in the area. I think a lot of programs are spoiled with great coaches in both the North and Southern D10.

    As far as GM, I have all the respect for that program. Good kids, good coaches. I just have a hunch they won’t win it this year. Mason is good no question, but other teams can maybe key on him.

  25. bballman32 says:

    What is your take on Saegertown boys? You give them any chance at all?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      bballman32,
      Lots of size and experience. If the Panthers can continue to get strong guard play, anything can happen in their playoff run.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  26. Tim B says:

    AA boys bracket (very difficult to come up with the seedings)…

    First Round

    (1)West Middlesex over (8)North East
    (5)Titusville over (4)Saegertown

    (2)Mercyhurst Prep over (7)Sharpsville
    (3)Lakeview over (6)Fairview

    Semi Finals

    (1)West Middlesex over (5)Titusville
    (2)Mercyhurst Prep over (3)Lakeview

    Finals

    (1)West Middlesex over (2)Mercyhurst Prep

    AAA boys bracket

    Play-in Round

    (10)Franklin over (7)Warren
    (8)Farrell over (9)Conneaut

    First Round

    (1)Girard over (8)Farrell
    (5)Strong Vincent over (4)Meadville

    (6)Sharon over (3)General McLane
    (2)Hickory over (10)Franklin

    Semi Finals

    (1)Girard over (5)Strong Vincent
    (6)Sharon over (2)Hickory

    Finals

    (6)Sharon over (1)Girard

  27. Joel Snyder says:

    My Predictions…

    Boys:
    A – Kennedy Catholic Def. Erie First
    AA – Mercyhurst Prep def. Saegertown
    AAA – Girard def. Hickory
    AAAA – Cathedral Prep def. Central Tech

    Girls:
    A – Kennedy Catholic def. Rocky Grove
    AA – General McLane def. North East
    AAA – Franklin def. Villa Maria
    AAAA – McDowell def. Central Tech

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Joel,
      Might want to check out that West Middlesex boys team. They might win every D-10 playoff game by at least 15 lol.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  28. Carrie says:

    For AAA girls, won’t MPrep and Warren have identical records and Warren won the last game so they should be a higher seed? Did I miss something?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Carrie,
      The second result doesn’t always decide the seed. It’s one of the factors. Mercyhurst’s strength of schedule and the fact MP won in regulation convicingly against Warren. That might decide it.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  29. steve says:

    Tom,
    If I were ranking teams, I too would rank MP higher than Warren, but if they end up with identical region records and split their games with each other, unless there is a common opponent that beat one and not the other, the seeding has to go to a coin flip doesn’t it according to the D10 handbook? If they say arbitrarily (although it may be true) that MP had a tougher schedule or that margin of victory is a factor I have to believe that is an unfair tiebreaker because it is subjective or truly arbitrary in the case of margin of victory. Seeding can be huge in AAA girls and MP doesn’t have any more right to that 4 seed than Warren does.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      steve,
      Those aren’t the only factors. If you look at the at-large process, there are a handful of things to consider. There is a lot of ambiguity in the way it is written for the handbook. A coin flip probably won’t come into play at all and I believe that is only used for region champions or automatics.

      I think people get a little confused separating the two criteria. There is a set list for region champions/automatic and a different one for at-large consideration.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  30. steve says:

    Yes the handbook is very ambiguous, I wish D10 took they initiative to make all playoffs qualifications and seeding very clear (other districts do it) but at least it makes for fun bracketology this way …

  31. Carrie says:

    I just remembered that happening a few years back in AAA in the South with Grove City and Slippery Rock and they took GC when SR had the stronger schedule and wins. That year there were a lot of issues with brackets. This year tends to have just as many.

  32. CCBballFan says:

    WM will win boys AA hands down. My predictions are WM over Saegertown in the championship then Lakeview over MP in the consolation. Nobody gives Sae. any credit, they’ve won about 16 straight games.They can play

  33. HCTROJ says:

    Very interesting…

    “I think the committee is moving toward rewarding people for playing top-flight competition,” said Dan O’Neil, chairman of the WPIAL basketball committee.

    “Strength of schedule is becoming more and more important to us. We’re moving away from giving seeds to section champs who come from a weaker section.”

    Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/sports/high-school-basketball/wpial-basketball-seeding-method-changes-675059/#ixzz2KnrCfu4M

  34. bballman32 says:

    So if Prep loses to Central tonight any chance Saeg gets the #2 seed? Or do you still think they give Prep the #1 seed over WM? Kind of hard to not give WM the #1 seed even if they do have to play Lakeview in Semis. Unless of course they give Saeg the #4 seed like last year. That would allow them to get thier “correct matchups” they always desire.
    I say seed them as thier records indicate. 1,2,3 are the region winners based on record. 4-8 go to at large based on record regardless of what region they are in. Either that or seed them like they did in the old FCVC days and have a predetermined bracket each year.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Prep plays in AAAA and Mercyhurst plays AA lol. And as I explained a few weeks ago, Saegertown was the 3 seed last year.

      I don’t think you can seed based on overall record. Mercyhurst and West Middlesex were playing brutal schedules this year, including big-time tournaments. I think both are the top seeds and Saegertown is the 3. I keep MP as the 1 seed simply to avoid WM-Lakeview in the semifinals. As much as everyone might object to that, I think we all know it’s the right thing to do.

      I think you can almost throw out overall record when it comes to seeding. Once you start using that to seed teams, every school is going to go schedule the sisters of the poor 10 times a year to make sure they go 10-0 in non-region games.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  35. blogmansouth says:

    Just want o put this out there… A lot is being said about West Middlesex and their chances not only in D-10 but also in the state playoffs… WM is a very good team I have watched them play several times this year and I must say that their sophomore Trey Staunch has the best footwork I have seen in several years.

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      blogmansouth,
      He is definitely and up-and-comer not only in hoops but as one of the top quarterbacks in D-10.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  36. guest says:

    seagertown won 16 straight with no quailty wins. there schedule is weak, they havent played a top team since the xmas tourn. there region is weak they will be one and done come playoff time.

  37. guest says:

    C.S basketball team is not as bad as their record. They could have taken the eaiser route like Saegertown and schedule gimme games and have 3 to 4 more wins, but they played a much harder non region schedule. Which in my opinion shows good coahing.

  38. bryan says:

    How can u have 6 teams for class A boys when
    there are only 2 teams that are .500 or better. playoffs are for winners not losers

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      Bryan,
      3 teams are going to the PIAA playoffs. Not sure you can put only 4 in the D-10 playoffs and send 75% of the field to state.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  39. Husky Watcher says:

    Harbor Creek girls finished strong. Big win vs. Warren. HC dressed only eight players and starting center was out. That was a big win for them. That sophomore they have is something. Hope they get a spot in playoffs, big step for that program.

  40. D10 Fan says:

    When are the D-10 playoffs expected to start next wk?

    • Tom Reisenweber says:

      D10 Fan,
      If the schedule is the same as last year, Thursday will be AAA boys, Friday will be A and AA boys and all girls games on Saturday. If there are play-ins, those would likely be Tuesday.

      Thanks,
      Tom

  41. brent johnson says:

    can’t girard still win region 6

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